Before you dive too deep into stats you have to have an appreciation for each team's schedule and the one thing we noticed right off the bat was just how much better the Pac 12 was compared with the Mountain West. That was not always true in years past, but the Pac 12 was definitely an elite conference in 2013. Oregon State's strength of schedule was ranked 14th compared to Boise who was ranked 79th. The PAC 12 went 10-0 vs. the Mountain West in the regular season and USC dominated the MWC Champion Fresno State in their bowl game winning 45-20. Washington State had a 45-30 lead over Colorado State with 4 minutes to play before they fumbled multiple times to lose in regulation as the only loss the Pac 12 has had vs. the Mountain West. This is the first reason I really like Oregon State.
The next reason has to do with the coaching change going on with Boise State as Chris Peterson finally moved on and took the Washington job. Of all the teams to lose their coach, Boise would be the one team I would say would be impacted by it the most. Then you look at the news and they already sent their starting QB home from the bowl for violating team rules. You can guess what that means.... Boise is enjoying this as a vacation where I think Oregon State has the better coach and control over their players. Oregon State lost their last 5 games of the season so they are hungry to go off on a high note especially with a senior laden team led by their QB Sean Mannion. They faced 5 top 50 pass defenses down the stretch and 3 were in the top 20. I was not surprised that they struggled down the stretch which leads me to my 3rd major reason why Oregon State will win this game.
Oregon State is ranked 3rd in the nation with a passing play % of 65% so to beat them you have to be able to stop the pass which is evident by their struggles down the stretch vs. top passing defenses of the PAC 12. Boise is not very good at stopping the pass and Sean Mannion feasted on his other opponents this year with 29 TD's and only 4 INT if you were not ranked in the top 50 in pass defense. He has a serious weapon in Brandin Cooks who was the nation's best WR winning the Fred Biletnikoff Award. Boise ranked 77th in opposing QB rating, 103rd in completion % defense and 91st in yards allowed. On the flip side Oregon State's pass defense has been great all year coming up with a 115 QB rating allowed in road games. with 15 interceptions and Boise lost when they couldn't pass having a QB rating that was 61 points less in their losses.
