I find it a little strange that South Carolina at #9 is an under dog against a Big 10 team that's ranked #19, but Wisconsin was better than their loss vs. Penn State and they deserved better than what happened at Arizona State and if you watched the Ohio State game they actually played better.
Both teams love to run the ball and win with the run and that is what I concentrated on in this game Wisconsin was 2nd in ypc rushing offense while South Carolina was averaging nearly 2 yards less and Wisconsin ranked 15th in rushing defense while South Carolina is ranked 57th. Whenever South Carolina played good rushing offenses they seemed to struggle and this is the best rushing attack they will face all year long. I made a lot of money on South Carolina this season and I think Connor Shaw is a very good college QB, but I don't even know if he will make it through this game the way Wisconsin plays physical football. He is also notorious for coming up short in big games that he's not playing in his own stadium so I think Wisconsin wins here.
Wow even without Max Bullough I still think Michigan State has tremendous value here when you take a look at the keys. How do you beat Stanford? The games that Stanford has lost or struggled in a few things happened. In wins Keith Hgan had a 163 QB rating and in losses a 114 QB rating. Hogan never played well against the good pass defenses and Michigan State is #1 with legit lock down corners that will play you in man coverage. They faced 5 top 40 pass defenses and his QB ratings were all bad 110, 120, 85.5 and 83. He's just not a game changer and that will allow Michigan State to stack the box.
The next thing is to protect the ball and that's something Michigan State does very well. In both of Stanford's losses they were negative in turnover margin and they were -1 on the season as good as their defense was they don't force turnovers. Michigan State does not turn the ball over and is +14 in turnovers this year. The third thing is to stay ahead of the chains. Michigan State has a very under rated offensive line that never seems to get credit, but they played a great game vs. Ohio State who has a great pass rush. Stanford's defense has not been dominant when they can't get to the QB and create negative plays which go hand in hand in turnovers. Michigan State was 12th in pass protection and only allowed 13 sacks. Guess what Stanford had just 3 sacks in their 2 losses combined.
Some may point to the Notre Dame game and ask why Michigan State lost and I would say they got robbed. Watching that game there were 10 penalties for 115 yards which changed the game. A lot of tick tack pass interference calls. I would also say that Michigan State's offense has improved drastically since especially Connor Cook who seems to make great decisions and has a big arm. I think Stanford is going to have a tougher time stopping Michigan State's offense than they did with Wisconsin last year as Cook is better than Curt Phillips. Michigan State will also dominate the field position battle as their punter is very under rated. Mike Sadler will pin you inside your 10 with ease and that can only make the Spartans offense better in the long run.
