I'll go with the Aggies here as they are a very solid team that lost at Air Force in their last road game as a -7.5 point favorite, but we are getting value because of that and they rebounded nicely at home and have had an extra 4 days to prepare and scheme against a Nevada team that just won a big one 2 days ago on the road against their in state rival UNLV as a +8 under dog. Here comes the hang over effect against a very very good Utah State team.
Nevada just got lucky more than anything as UNLV played their worst game of the season shooting the ball going 3-20 from down town. To put that in perspective Nevada is ranked 225th in defending the 3 and now they go back home where they are allowing opponents to shoot over 38% 6% worse than what they allow on the road. Utah state has been very consistent shooting over 40% from three at home or away and they have balance ranked 67th in the country shooting the ball inside, and 80% from the FT line. Nevada on the other hand is ranked 123rd in 2 point offense and 284th in 2 point defense. They are going to have issues defending a Utah State team that's hungry for their first big road win. Utah State is also ranked 6th in total rebounding % while Nevada is 124th. I really like this match up for Utah State and so do my algorithms. I'm going to make it a rare max play.
Oakland may be 0-7 on the road, but they are better than their record shows as they have played some of the best teams in the country. There is a lot of value on this team and they have already rewarded my once. Ranked #15 in strength of schedule RPI and going up against a Detroit team that is 8-17 ATS int heir last 25 home games and having to face a conference game up next they should be a bit distracted.
