Denver's defense has looked almost elite recently, but lets cool down a bit the loss of CB Chris Harris is a big one and they are already without Von Miller. They have only faced 6 opponents in the top 10 in scoring offense and 2 times it was KC who is only at that level because of their defense. They faced Dallas and allowed 48 points, New England and allowed 34 (31 in 1 half), Colts 39, and the Eagles 20 - who were still with Mike Vick. Now New England's offense has evolved and I think it's going to be extremely challenging for the Broncos to come up with a game plan. I wouldn't be shocked if Brady and co came out firing and throwing it 40 times after last week's run first campaign, but they can clearly run the ball too as Lagarrette Blount showed down the stretch.
I just think we are getting tremendous value on the Patriots with more than a field goal to play with. Under Bill Belichick the Patriots are 20-8 ATS when they are under dogs 3.5 to 9.5 points and they are 45-26-3 ATS in their last 74. The line is marked up a bit because of the great season Peyton Manning had and everything he has to prove, but don't think for a second that Tom Brady doesn't have something to prove. Most people still consider Brady the worse QB of the two and Brady still wants another ring and there is a reason he is 18-7 in the playoffs while Manning is 10-11 and Brady is 10-4 straight up vs. Manning. Overall it's a team game and I think the Patriots have the better team and coaching staff and I think we are getting some line value here especially since it went back up to 5.5. Don't forget the Patriots turned the ball over 3 times and handed the Broncos a big 1st half lead and I'm not so sure the Broncos wouldn't have lost by 20 points had that not happen. I'm predicting the Patriots to win this game outright although I'll only wager on the side since I already have a futures play pending on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.
