Florida International +17 1.1% Free Play

I will take FIU in this game as Middle Tennessee is coming off their biggest win in the history of their program on the road against Missouri. There is no doubt that has moved the line here quite a bit. I believe MTSU got a bit of a misleading victory considering they were +3 in TO margin. On the other side FIU was just -16 yards in total offense against La Tech, a similar opponent. They were actually 24-18 in first downs and converted 47% on third down. A late kickoff return for TD took away their cover and give us line value this week.

FIU has been much better since they fired their head coach and have bene better vs. the pass in conference play than Middle Tennessee with a 117 QB rating allowed compared to a 141 QB rating allowed which is key since both of these teams like to pass more than run. This is a tough spot for Middle Tennessee in back to back road games after a huge win. I wouldn’t be shocked to see FIU pull the upset.

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