Dallas just beat Portland as a small home favorite and now they have a much tougher game against an angry Pacers team that is reeling off 3 straight losses. The Pacers also have revenge on their mind as they lost to the Mavericks at home by 8pts earlier this season. The Pacers are 15-5-1 ATS int heir last 21 games following a SU loss and they were 12-1 SU following a SU loss until this 3 game losing streak which I think they come out of here today with a big win to improve to 13-3 on the season following a SU loss. This is a team that never lost 4 in a row all year last year and a team that's motivated by having now a slim edge on the Heat in the #1 seed by just 1.5 games.
Dallas on the other hand may have their focus on their next game which is traveling to Golden State who they trail by 2 games for the 6th seed. Dallas is the team that can afford to lose right now while Indiana is desperate which is usually a good thing for a defensive minded team like Indiana who is #1 in shooting defense and #1 in 2 point defense where Dallas takes nearly 75% of their shots. Dallas is 8-13 SU and 9-12 ATS vs. teams ranked in the top 10 in 2 pt defense this year. Indiana is also won of the better rebounding teams ranking 6th in rebounding % while Dallas ranks 27th in rebounding % the same ranking they have for shooting defense. Indiana has gone 24-7 combined against the worst 8 teams in shooting defense and rebounding % and I expect them to win big here today before going home to face a bad Boston team.
