I like Virginia in this spot despite the revenge factor for Pitt who just defeated North Carolina on revenge. This is the third game Pitt is playing in 3 days and now they have to face one of the best defenses in the country and I don't think they'll have the energy they did yesterday that was evident in their win over the Tarheels. Virginia has the luxury of the day 1 bye in this tournament and played at 12pm yesterday with Pitt playing at 2pm which does make a difference. Pitt is not as good as their record and before their win over UNC many were saying a loss could have had them at a very low seed in the NCAA Tournament, because they don't have any marquee wins and suffer from having the 71st SOS RPI while Virginia is 34th.
With all that said I still think Virginia is a much better team they only won by 3 on the road at Pitt, but on neutral court with Pitt having to play 3 games in 3 days I believe that should loosen Pitt's defense enough for Virginia to get a big win. Virginia's defense is ranked 10th in 2 point defense where Pitt takes the majority of their shots and they are ranked 49th in 3 point defense while Pitt is 54th and 111th respectfully. Virginia was much better in conference play +7.4 ppg differential over Pitt's differential to be exact. Virginia is also playing better of late as Pitt lost 4 of their last 7 regular season games while Virginia's offense is identical % wise over their last 5 games their defense which I said is the key all along is 6.2% better over the last 5 games compared with PItt. I like the -3 because this Virginia team plays relentless and they just don't let up which is what you want from a team as a small favorite.
