Both of these teams need to run the ball to win this game. Both teams have double the YPC, and YPC allowed in wins vs. their 4 losses. I would say Iowa will have an easier time running the ball here since Florida is missing 3 key linebackers, but they can stack the box given their strength in the secondary which is a weakness for Iowa. Iowa vs. top 30 run defenses averaged 16.4 points per game while Florida averaged 17 points so I expect this to be a low scoring game.
I really think Iowa wants this game more having lost 4 in a row, but Florida remembers their 41-7 loss vs Michigan last year well. Intensity will be high on both sidelines for this game because of those factors. I could make a case for both teams to win the game, but the play I feel most comfortable with is the under. Both teams struggle on offense, but need to run the ball to win and both defenses are very good defending the run. Both teams are very good in the red zone in terms of defense and both teams I would say care about this game deeply.
I think you see a lot of 2-4 yard runs which will keep the clock ticking in this game quite a bit and the under will be a good play.
