Harvard beat #3 New Mexico last year and they are everyone's #12 to defeat a #5 this year and I actually agree with the public consensus. Harvard is not your typical Ivy league team they have wont he league for a 4th year in a row and they have a balanced offense with a very good defense ranked 33rd in adjusted rankings. Cinci has a very poor offense and the American Conference really was not that strong. Harvard went into Storrs and lost to Uconn by just 5 and Uconn beat Cinci 2 out of 3 times. This game is on neutral court and I think Harvard's experience from last year will help them pull an upset in back to back years.
This is my total of the year as you have two teams from high flying conferences, but both are defensive oriented teams ranking in the top 40 in adjusted defensive rankings. The spread is close in this one so each team feels like they have a chance to win and will play the game down to the last possession. with that said I see too much value on the under here as this game will be played in the 60's in my opinion. Arizona State is 36-17-1 on the under in their last 54 vs. a team with a win % over .600 and TExas is under 9-2 int heir last 11 on neutral court. Public perception is these teams come from high scoring conferences out of the PAC12 and the Big12 thus an inflated total that I will take advantage of.
I think Texas in a defensive battle will have the advantage as they are an exceptional rebounding team while Arizona State is not. Texas also rebounds 39.4% of their missed shots which ranks 6th in the nation. That should be the difference in winning this game.
St. Louis is now 8-17 ATS on the year as a favorite while NC State is 13-6 ATS on the season as a dog. I'll just take NC State as the dog outright as they have built some momentum down the stretch. They also have the best player on the court in TJ Warren who is the ACC player of the year. St Louis lost 4 of their last 5 games and struggle in 2 point defense compared with their 3 point defense and that's where NC State takes the majority of their shots. NC State's offense is ranked 23rd in adjusted rankings compared ot the 15th ranked adjusted defense they have faced so facing a good defensive team will be nothing new to them. NC State will continue their success on neutral court where they are 35-17 ATS in their last 52.
