Uconn has been under rated all year long and they are again in the Elite against a healthy Michigan State team that has not been blowing out their opponents. The Spartans are very good when healthy, but their defense has not been dominant this year and they have some weaknesses defending the three that Uconn can take advantage of in a building they are very much used to playing at. Uconn I think has just enough in this game and they'll have arguably the best two players on the court in Napier and Daniels. This is a the same starting 5 from a year ago and they continue to be under rated, because they were not in tournament, not allowed. I believe they have just as much offense as the Spartans and a better defense. If the Huskies can avoid a huge rebounding disadvantage I think they will win this game and head back to the Final 4.
I keep fading Michigan and I keep getting burned, but I can't help it on this match up because Michigan relies so much on the perimeter game. The match ups vs. Texas and Tennessee were in their favor playing Tennessee 180th in perimeter defense and Texas 235th. I thought both of those teams could over come that disadvantage with the big advantage they have in the front court and rebounding. I was right to an extend, but three point shooting of Michigan was too much in both games, but in this match up they are playing arguably the most talented team in the nation that has matured throughout this tournament winning games down the stretch that they were not supposed to. They did it against Wichita State and they did it against Louisville, home Michigan would have been underdogs against. Kentucky is 52nd in defending the three and did an excellent job against Louisville. The trio of 6'6 guards that Kentucky have will be enough to disrupt the flow that Michigan has right now. Michigan is 234th in 2 point defense and have the worst defense left in the tournament. You take a look at all the other teams and they are all defensive oriented so I expect Michigan to be out after today and for Kentucky to keep their momentum.
