This Cardinal team is a tough team to beat at home especially when you are bringing a RH starter to the table which the Cubs are tonight with Jeff Samardzija who over the last 3 years carries a 5.91 ERA at Busch Stadium. The Cardinal hitters have hit him hard in 103 AB they have a .330 average. The Cubs will also face a RH starter which they are 12-40 in their last 50 games parlay that with the Cardinals who are an impressive 45-14 at home over their last 52 games vs. a RH starter and you have a 76% angel here. Jeff Samardzija is also 8-20 in his last 28 vs. a team with a winning record. I like his upside but just not vs. one of the best teams in the NL.

Also Joe Kelly takes the mound for the Cardinals and he has a 3.12 ERA at Busch Stadium in his career and posts a 2.61 career ERA over 30+ innings vs. the Cubs. Cubs hitters have a .586 OPS in 74 AB and the Cardinals bullpen has picked it up posting a 1.98 ERA over their last 5 compared with the Cubs at 5.28.


This is almost 100% a fade on Bruce Chen and the Royals bullpen that has a 5.79 ERA on the year and a 7.62 over their last 3 games. Facing the Twins should help, but not tonight as Bruce Chen has a 5.60 ERA in his last 5 starts at Target Field and collectively the Twins have hit him well posting a .881 OPS in 128 AB. He's got a 4.67 ERA over his last 38 road starts and has been known more for his quality pitching at home not on the road. Twins will have a lot of RHB in their line up that should get quality ABs vs. Chen who is 1-10 in his last 11 Friday starts. The Twins also have revenge on their mind after losing 15 of their 19 meetings with the Royals a year ago.

Where to find Freddy?