The strength of schedule comparison is ridiculously uneven. Arkansas' four previous SEC opponents, Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn all rank in the top five in total offense and in the top four in scoring offense. Three of those four are in the Top-10 of the College Football Playoff Ranking. Florida hasn't played anybody ranked in the current Top-25. Arkansas has played four teams ranked in the Top-25 when they met them. Florida has played one in Tennessee, which is currently on a three-game losing streak and is no longer ranked, and Florida lost that one 38-28.
Arkansas also coming off the bye this week which was very much needed for the health of the offensive line, the QB, and their TE Sprinkle. In my opinion Florida has not faced an offense as good as Arkansas especially not on the road. Arkansas QB is going to the NFL and Austin Allen has 4 legitimate weapons in Sprinkle, Cornelius, Hatcher, and Morgan. Floridaâs defense on the road against Tennessee they gave up 38 points, 319 passing yards and 4 TDâs and that was with Tennessee coming out flat. Florida has faced an average offensive team from a YPP perspective of 91, and they have not faced a single QB in the top 50 in QB rating for a team, Arkansas #32. On the flip side Arkansas defense has faced an average offensive ranking of #48 in YPP. So this is actually a downgrade in competition for them.
I mentioned the bye, but I also think we get value as Florida covered at Georgia in misleading fashion, and Arkansas, was gassed on the road against Auburn lost 56-3. This is a team that gave Alabama a run for their money at home. Florida just is not getting my respect here I expect Arkansas to win this game outright as Florida has not shown they can run the ball on the road with just 2.6ypc and rank #63 overall in YPC offense. Arkansas has clearly struggled stopping the run, but they have faced 4 teams in the top 20 with running QBâs. I believe Arkansas defense is better than their rankings and they will play well here on Satuday.
