The Pirates have the betters starting pitcher on the mound tonight, the better bullpen and the better match up in my opinion as the Cardinals are 27th vs. the FB this year and will go up against one of the best fast ball pitchers in the game. Cole pitched well with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP against the Cardinals over 3 starts last year and he'll face a Cardinals team that is hitting under .200 and scoring just 1.60 runs per 9 over their last 5 games. Cole is averaging 95.5 mph on his fast ball and should hold an advantage over Shelby Miller who is also a hard throwing RHP.
However, MIller has a 5.93 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP in 5 career starts vs the Pirates. Miller has struggled big time in his second season by walking 5.56 guys per 9 innings. It's hard to figure since he's throwing 73% of his pitches as fast balls that he still is having such control issues. Either way I like the fact that the Pirates have so much success against him with a .287 average and a .957 OPS over 87 AB.
If I asked you whose offense was better right now you'd say the Tigers without blinking, but that's why we get some nice value here on the Twins who should be favored. The Twins are 3rd in OPS vs. RHP on the year while the Tigers are 15th. They'll start an old reliable veteran in Kevin Correia who will always keep his team in the game. Correia had 3 starts vs. the Tigers a year ago posting a 2.18 ERA over 3 starts and has all quality starts against this Tigers team in his career. He has just 1 bad start this year and that was at home to the Athletics who are ranked 4th in offense. Correia overall hada 3.35 ERA in 16 starts at home last year and I expect him to pitch well tonight since he's on extra rest which he recorded 7 of 8 quality starts at home last year with a 2.96 ERA. He's held the Tigers in check an OPS under .700 while the Tigers are only scoring 3.06 runs per 9 on the road. Minnesota is also backed by the better bullpen by over 2 runs in ERA.
Rick Porcello is on 4 days rest and has to face the #3 offense in the league vs. RHP they are scoring 6.22 runs per 9 vs. RHP and he's backed by a bullpen posting a 5.62 ERA. In 149 AB the Twins have a .322 average and a .896 OPS against Porcello.
