This is a game that was postponed from October during the hurricane. Tulane really needs this game badly if they want to get into a bowl game, but nonetheless this is a dramatic improvement for this team under HC Willie Fritz. I believe we are getting some line value too when you consider the spread was 13.5 back in October. Tulane really has not been blown out this season losing by 4, 7, 10, 4, and 23 points to Tulsa on the road. Tulsa of course plays much faster #1 in the country at 92 plays per game at home and they are 60th in yards per play offense. Central Florida ranks 105th YPP and is averaging 17 less plays per game. Central Florida has not played well offensively in conference play averaging 2.98 ypc, 29% on third down and their QB has 5 TD’s to 5INT’s. Tulane is 14th in sack % and could bring the heat if UCF decides to start throwing the ball around. UCF has given up 24 sacks, so I’m sure they don’t want to do that at home. Tulane’s defense also ranks 27th holding opponents 57.4 yards under their season offensive average.

Both teams prefer to run the ball which is the reason why we see this total at 50. Tulane will run the ball 69% of the time on the road keeping the clock ticking another reason why they have been in the majority of their games. Central Florida comes in running the ball 57% of the time. The only time Central Florida blew out an opponent was East Carolina who they were +3 in turnover margin on. Tulane is +10 on the season and has turned the ball over just 3 times on the road. Central Florida plays well defensively, but their strength is more against the pass and they have shown vulnerabilities vs. the run which we know Fritz loves to do with that option attack. I just see no reason why Central Florida should be a 17 point favorite. If anything they are going to be a little upset this after losing to Houston by only 7 points despite forcing 4 turnovers.

Where to find Freddy?