Jets/Bills Under 51 1.1% free play

Buffalo plays its second straight road game on a short week after Monday night's 23-6 win at Minnesota and enters with starting right tackle Spencer Brown listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. Rather than exposing Josh Allen to unnecessary dropback hits, Buffalo is built to lean on the NFL's second-ranked rushing attack (146.6 yards per game through eight games in 2026) behind James Cook (169 carries, 814 yards, eight touchdowns). That clock-bleeding ground script attacks the exact soft spot of a Jets defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards allowed through nine games (1,780 yards, 6.1 net yards per attempt) while sitting 26th in rushing yards surrendered (1,152 yards on a league-high 282 opponent carries).

On the other side, New York averages just 20.2 points per game (25th in the NFL) across nine contests this season and managed only 12 points and 229 total yards (123 net passing) at Kansas City last week. Through Week 9, the Jets are converting 35.4% on third down (40-of-113) and 40.7% in the red zone (11 touchdowns on 27 trips), while top receiver Garrett Wilson enters questionable in concussion protocol. Five of New York's nine games have stayed under the total in 2026, and sustained Buffalo rushing drives combined with Jets red-zone stalls keep this AFC East matchup below the key number of 51.