Tulane +3 2.2% play

Key Analytical & Schematic Angles

• Freshman QB Trace Johnson’s Offensive Upgrade: Tulane’s season-long offensive averages (22.5 PPG) are dragged down by early-season quarterback play against a top-75 schedule that included road trips to Duke and Kansas State. Turning the offense over to freshman QB Trace Johnson sparked the unit last week, as Johnson went 28-of-36 (77.8%) for 284 yards and led a 467-yard performance (6.7 YPP) capped by a 61-yard game-tying touchdown drive in the final seconds of regulation.

• Tulsa’s AAC Run Defense Bleed: Although Tulsa’s full-season defensive numbers look respectable on paper, they have been gashed in American Conference playâ€"surrendering 444.0 total YPG and 294.0 rushing YPG against league opponents. Overall, Tulsa ranks #130 nationally in rushing defense (202.0 YPG) and #123 in negative play rate (6%), setting up a prime bounce-back spot for a Tulane ground attack that averages 5.2 YPC at home and posted 183 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) last week.

• Late-Game Execution & Road Favorite Struggles: Tulsa has failed to cover in five of its last six games as a road favorite and has repeatedly struggled to close out tight contests, blowing a 7-point fourth-quarter lead in a 38-35 home loss to Army prior to the bye and falling 45-44 in overtime to North Texas