Teasers have been rough to start the year so we are trying a different approach this week with a 3 team teaser with low totals.

Steelers +6.5 / Broncos +11 / Jaguars -0.5 2.4% teaser -120

Leg 1: Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 (Teased from -3.5 | Total: 38.5) Our model prices Pittsburgh as a -4.2 favorite with a +1.46-point PFF unit adjustment and a 39.8 total. While Pittsburgh is returning from Paris without a bye weekâ€"making it prudent to avoid laying the flat -3.5 hookâ€"teasing the Steelers through zero and across the key numbers of 3, 4, and 6 to +6.5 insulates us against any post-travel sluggishness. Pittsburgh has won 22 consecutive regular-season home games against Cleveland, including a 9-0 straight-up mark in home matchups priced at four points or fewer. Schematically, Pittsburgh's offensive line ranks fourth in the NFL in line yards and third in EPA per rush on inside zone runs, attacking a Cleveland front surrendering 5.4 yards per carry to inside zone (compared to the 3.9 NFL average). Cleveland's defense drops off significantly on the road (now playing its third road game in four weeks), all five of its wins have required a score in the final four minutes or overtime, and head referee Alex Moore's crew has favored home teams at a 10-6 straight-up and 10-6 ATS clip. In a 38.5-point divisional grinder, asking Deshaun Watson and the Browns to win in Pittsburgh by a full touchdown or more is a low-probability ask.

Leg 2: Denver Broncos +11.0 (Teased from +1.0 | Total: 40.5) Teasing Denver from +1.0 up to +11.0 captures every major key number in football (3, 4, 6, 7, and 10) inside a 40.5-point total. The Broncos are in an all-in Week 1 revenge spot at Mile High, where they are 25-12 ATS as a home underdog when holding a winning record, and where Patrick Mahomes has failed to cover four straight starts while scoring fewer than 20 points in each of his last two trips. Kansas City is on a short travel week after being held to three points on Sunday Night Football and is severely compromised in the trenches: starting left tackle Josh Simmons is on injured reserve and backup Jaylon Moore is in concussion protocol playing out of position at right tackle. Denver welcomes back All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II alongside top-three defensive unit grades and edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper against a depleted Chiefs receiving corps (with Rashee Rice questionable with a hamstring injury and Tyquan Thornton out). Vance Joseph's defense has held Mahomes to the bottom half of his career passer rating in five consecutive meetings, and referee Clete Blakeman is 4-2 to the under in recent divisional games. Holding a two-score +11.0 cushion with a rested, elite home defense against a banged-up offensive line is an ideal teaser anchor.

Leg 3: Jacksonville Jaguars -0.5 (Teased from -10.5 | Total: 46.5) Moving Jacksonville down 10 points from -10.5 to -0.5 eliminates the double-digit margin requirement and turns the final leg into a straight moneyline playâ€"a spot where double-digit favorites of -10 to -10.5 have historically cashed at a 91.1% rate in 10-point teasers. Indianapolis is in full front-office liquidation after firing its general manager and trading away All-Pro left guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner this week, while wide receiver Josh Downs has requested a trade. Even after the market steamed the Jaguars up from the opener, our model projects Jacksonville -9.9 with a +0.83-point PFF edge, a +4.1% ball-security advantage, and a 4.8% turnover-worthy play warning on the Colts. Playing their third road game in four weeks and fifth away contest in seven weeks, the Colts must rely on an immobile Daniel Jones (29th in EPA per dropback) behind a gutted offensive line and a declining Jonathan Taylor running into Jacksonville's stout run front without Nelson. Meanwhile, Jacksonville comes off its bye week rested to attack an Indianapolis defense generating a league-worst pressure rate and dealing with secondary injuries. With 15â€"20 mph winds forecast in Jacksonville, referee Adrian Hill sitting at 19-12-1 to the under in career divisional games, and Indianapolis having lost 10 straight trips to Jacksonville, the Jaguars simply need to win outright at home to cash the ticket.