Official Selections:

• UAB +7.5 (-110) â€" 2.2% Bankroll Allocation

• UAB Moneyline (+255) â€" 0.8% Bankroll Allocation

Key Angles

• The +7.5 Hook in a Low-Total Grinder: Catching the hook past the key number of 7 in a game with a 41.5 total carries a massive mathematical premium. UAB (4-3) is outgaining opponents by +22.1 yards per game against a tougher schedule, whereas South Florida (5-2) is outgaining opponents by just +0.6 yards per game and sits at 0-2 SU and ATS in AAC play (losing 17-13 at home to Temple and 31-24 at UTSA).

• 95% Temple Comp & USF’s Box-Score Mirage: We cashed Temple outright at USF earlier this month, and UAB is a 95% profile match to that Temple team. USF is heavily overvalued off consecutive wins over MAC bottom-feeders Bowling Green (14-6, managing just 214 total yards and 4.0 yards per play) and Kent State (29-2, where USF totaled just 101 first-half yards, failed to score an offensive touchdown until late in the third quarter, and finished with only 271 total yards).

• UAB’s #1 Pass Defense & Ground Control: UAB is 3-1 SU in its last four games (upsetting Navy 24-20 and East Carolina 30-17, with the lone loss coming at Memphis where UAB was -3 in turnovers despite being outgained by only 84 yards). The Blazers control the clock with 168.0 rushing YPG behind RBs Roderick Robinson II and Braylon McReynolds while fielding the #31 total defense (316.3 YPG, 5.0 YPP allowed) and #1 pass defense by yardage (126.0 YPG allowed) against a sluggish USF passing offense ranked #112 nationally (187.6 YPG).

• Clutch QB Play & Rest Advantage: Coming off a bye week with QB Ryder Burton fresh off a 262-yard, 2-TD, 0-INT performance against East Carolina (highlighted by a 93-yard scoring drive in the final 62 seconds) and 11â€"12 mph east winds in Tampa, FL favoring the stronger rushing attack, UAB is live to win this game outright in the fourth quarter.