LA Tech -6 1.1% Free play

Model Edge: Our model projects Louisiana Tech -11.5 (5.5-point edge). Despite 65% of tickets and 72% of spread cash backing South Alabama, sharp books moved Tech from -5.5 up to -6.

Trench Dominance: Tech (6-1 ATS) enters off consecutive shutouts over ULM (24-0) and ODU (26-0), holding a +27 net TFL margin, a +14 turnover margin (10 INTs), and allowing 50 total rushing yards over its last two games.

Passing Mismatch: Bulldogs QB Blake Baker (72.2% completions, 10 TDs, 1 INT) converts 45.4% of third downs (#32 in FBS) against a Jaguars defense ranked #109 on third downs (41.9%) and #136 in yards per play allowed (6.9).

Situational System: Jaguars QB Jared Hollins went 12-of-33 for 148 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT last week against Marshall, while Tech fits a 48-16-3 ATS (75.0%) system for conference road teams coming off a shutout win.