Broncos +8.5 / Texans +8.5 3.3% NFL Teaser

Our model shows an edge on the Broncos tonight, but with Surtain out, and the strugglign Bo Nix, I could not back them unless I had a 3 to get it to 3.5. I think the teaser with two low totals has a great advantage with Denver beign the home team, and Seattle coming off a brutal tough loss against a division foe it's going to be a struggle to win with any kind of margin tonight. 

Texans also in a similar situation, and a division match up.  They have the disadvantage of going to Europe with Jacksonville already being there, so can't play the Texans on the spread, but I think a divisional match up with a low total getting this over several key numbers makes a lot of sense.  Texans still sport a top defense. Texans offense gets a boost whenever Nico Collins is healthy and the addition of Marvin Harrison will make a difference as CJ Stroud played with him in college. 

We are going against the public in both of these games and Vegas has been very hesitant to move the favorites up to 3 points for a reason.  I would not be surprised if both the Broncos and Texans won outright.