Iowa State +10.5 (2% Play)

Situational Look-Ahead & Key Number Value: BYU is walking into a classic look-ahead trap. They are an overvalued 4-0 ATS team that barely escaped TCU, and now they host the Cyclones with a massive, season-defining showdown against Notre Dame looming next week. Iowa State is completely dialed in for this Top 10 matchup, knowing they have a bye week on deck to recover. We are securing the critical key number of 10 in what projects to be a physical, low-possession rock fight.

Matchup Edge & Attrition: The Cougars are severely compromised on both sides of the ball. Top running back LJ Martin and key linebacker Isaiah Glasker are both listed as doubtful following injuries sustained last week against TCU. Missing your offensive centerpiece and a defensive anchor against Tyler Roehl's physical, grinding Iowa State scheme is a recipe for a backdoor cover—or an outright upset.