Texas Tech +3 -120 3.5% play
I'm always looking for value when I'm looking to back a team in the playoff. What team is not getting respect. I clearly got it wrong with Miami last night, and that was not a good showing for the Big Ten. The Big Ten is 6-5 ATS in bowl games, while the Big 12 is 5-0 ATS. Texas Tech's name brand does not offer much to desire, but this is a different team that brong in a ton of talen via NIL $. The defense is a top 5 unit this season, and we have seen Oregon struggle against better defenses scoring just 20, 21, 18, and 26 points. Another value here is Morton who had been in a walking boot basically all season, only practicing once per week, and the 26 days off has gotten him completely healthy and out of the boot and able to practice. I think had he been healthy all year Tech's offense would have been much better, and we have seen Dan Lanning's defenses struggle when they step up in competition. The other intangibles here are the fact that both of Oregon's coordinators are leaving for other teams, we saw Ohio State's offense struggle last night with their coordinator at the game, but had to turn play calling duties over to the head coach, because he was leaving for another team. That is proof that it actually does matter if a head coach does not trust his OC enough to prepare for a playoff game, because his mind is potentially not 100% focused. Texas Tech is retaining all of their coordinators. Texas Tech also will have the crowd edge here in Florida, the early game for Oregon is also not ideal for a west coast team that had to travel the furthest of any teams. I also think the fact that Oregon already played gives Tech an advantage as far as scheme and preparation. Nonetheless I expect a tight game and getting Tech +3 at -120 is great value. Oregon's experience is one thing to note where they have the advantage along with the QB play, but I think all of the other factors I mentioned are worth more, and the fact that we have Tech as the dog make this a strong play here this morning.
