TROY +3 2.2% PLAY

I think the wrong team is favored here.  The Sun Belt is a better conference, and has faced tougher competition this year, and has gone 6-3 against Conference USA.  In fact Jacksonville State lost two two C-USA teams.  Troy has really struggled defending the run, and that's what Jacksonville State does best, but even with that said they had won some games against better running teams, and with a little extra time, I think its easier to fix a broken run defense than anything else.  Troy's QB is making the start, and going up against a poor defense will really help them in this game.  They went 5-1 against bad pass defensive teams this year.  I think both teams care about this game given that they are 165 miles apart, but I'm trusting Troy more here to get the win.  I also like the fact that they are better at red zone offense and defense, which could be the difference here tonight.