Lean Arkansas State -3, Arkansas State played a similar team in UNLV last week in the sense that UNLV runs the ball a ton, and I was mostly impressed with Arkansas State's defense as they were +1.53 yards per play and held UNLV to a 27.1% success rate. Now they go on the road to face Georgia Southern in conference play where they have had tremendous success going 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 conference road games. Arkansas State though just 1-3 ATS on the year and did give up 300 yards on the ground in this game and benefited from +4 TO margin in poor weather.
I just can't bet on this team facing a team at home that is off a bye here, and Arkansas State has to at least be thinking about their next game against Appalachian State their main conference competitor. This one is a pass for me as Arkansas State is due to digress here in conference play.
