Oregon -7 3.3% Play

In my podcast I had mentioned there would be value on Oregon because Jim Leavitt their defensive coordinator was staying.  There are still rumors that he may go to Florida State, but for now at least it seems like he's coaching for this game and that's a big deal as he dramatically improved this defense making them a top 30 unit with 5 yards per play allowed.  Last year they allowed 6.4 which would have put them 115th in the nation to put things in perspective.  Boise State's offense is not what it once was and they have been juggling QB's which I never like.  Aside from some early big scoring games they have struggled against top 50 defenses scoring just 27ppg compared to 39.2 against non-top 50.  They also scored 17 in back to back games against Fresno State.  Fresno State a very balanced defense against the run and pass much like Oregon who is also top 50 in opponent passer rating and opponent yards per rush.  I'm expecting a similar output from Boise State's offense who could be missing their best player in RB Alex Mattison who is questionable for this game.

Oregon's offense has had its ups and downs this year and are likely without RB Royce Freeman here.  Freeman is going to sit out to rest for the NFL draft.  I never agree with that, but I say they are better off and have plenty of talent behind Freeman to fill in the gap.  Justin Herbert, the QB will play in this game and if you have watched Oregon this year they are just a different offense with him in there.  With Herbert the offense averaged 52 points per game and without only 15ppg.  I paid dearly for backing Oregon a couple times without Herbert.  Boise State is very good on paper just like they always are, but in reality they haven't faced any balanced offenses.  Colorado State would be close and they put up 52 points on Boise State.  Virginia had the QB bomb away for 42 points, and they gave up 47 to Washington State and their backup QB with a one dimensional attack.

I would lean toward the over if I caught it early, but don't be surprised to see Boise State's offense really struggle here.  If I caught wind of Leavitt definitely leaving then I would like the over a lot more. 

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