Appalachian State -17.5 2.2% play
I believe there is value in this line with an angry Appalachian State team heading home after two straight losses. App State got their star running back, back last game as he ran for 114 yards on 21 carries. When he's healthy and averages over 5 yards per carry this team has scored 54, 45, and 45 points. He had 8.4 yards per carry against Georgia Southern last year, and GS is allowing 6.5 yards per carry in their road games this year. Taylor Lamb at QB has also been excellent this year with 19 TD's and 5 INT's. I expect them to score 40+ points in this game.

Georgia Southern, 0-8 on the season and traveling on short rest having played just 5 days ago losing to instate rival Georgia State. This is App State's biggest rivalry game and they have held Georgia Southern to 10 and 13 points the last two years. Georgia Southern has had issues in the red zone and scoring points as they have converted just 42% into TD's while App State's defense has been dominant holding opponents to 48% and an even better 43% against conference foes.

The one match-up that looks good on paper for Georgia Southern is the running game as App State has struggled a bit compared to recent years, but Georgia Southern has no ability to pass the ball or protect their QB ranking 119th in pass protection. This running offense that has gotten worse each of the last three years is averaging just 3.84 ypc. 2015 they were averaging over 6 ypc, last year 4.44 when App State held them to just 65 yards rushing.
App State's defense should be motivated here against their rival to have a complete game. Georgia Southern has nothing to play for and their interim coach already knows he's likely not to be the guy.

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