West Virginia -3 -120 (-3.5 -105 everywhere) 4% play
It's not often you see an unranked team favored against a ranked team, but here we are. These two teams have a lot in common, but West Virginia has had the tougher schedule. Their two toughest games have been on the road and they lost both games by only 7 points having out played both opponents. Last week against TCU they held a +12 first down edge, and were +102 yards, but turned the ball over 2x and this was on the road. This was the same TCU team that went on the road and defeated Oklahoma State. Texas Tech faced Oklahoma State at home and they too only lost by 7 points, but they should have lost by 3 TD's as they were outgained by 213 yards and allowed Oklahoma State's offense in their territory in 10 of 12 drives. West Virginia has a very balanced offense as they are top 25 in running and passing and should have the same success.
West Virginia's offense went on the road to start the season and out played a good Virginia Tech team as they were +123 yards in the 7 point loss. They put up records on a Bud Foster defense. Now they finally get a home game against a good opponent and I think they can win this game by double digits. Statistically speaking these two are about the same and Texas Tech may even have the edges in several categories, but since West Virginia has played the tougher schedule and their two toughest games have been on the road I expect the defense which appears to be the weakness to have their best game against Texas Tech who is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks.
Texas Tech has also been extremely fortunate this year at +9 TO margin. West Virginia takes care of the ball as well and they have been better in the red zone with a +21% advantage as far as TD% goes. We mentioned Texas Tech's struggles allowing opponents to drive into their territory. While Texas Tech is -1%. Slight edge to West Virginia in the return game in special teams while neither team's kicker is very good that gives an edge to West Virginia who is at home and has the better red zone defense. I also love the fact that West Virginia is penalized less. The only thing not making this a bigger play is the fact that West Virginia is off a tough loss and haven't been able to win their close games. However, I think this won't be close and expect a big win by the Mountaineers. This is a long way for Tech to travel.
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