This play was released 4 hours ago.  I noticed it was not emailed for some reason so I'm releasing it again.

BYU + 8 3.3% PLAY 

This could be a situation where we come back on Boise -6.5 in live betting and hope for a middle. Tanner Mangum took snaps this week and is a game time decision. If he plays we are getting tremendous value here. This is not the Boise State of previous years and BYU as bad as they have been they actually started to show progress last week offensively against Utah State particularly in the run game. The problem was they turned the ball over 7 times which led to I believe 34 points or something just absolutely absurd.
Even if Mangum can't go we won't see Koy Detmer who seemed to be throwing the ball with his eyes closed a week ago. I feel confident knowing that Detmer won't play and that this running game should have success. When you factor in that they faced LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin's run defenses it's no wonder they struggled especially without the threat of a pass. Against Utah State they rushed for 210 yards, but kept fumbling the ball. The question is can they run it again this week against Boise?
Boise State's defense is allowing 29 points per game this year and it's clear that Bryan Harsin is possibly ruining this program. The defense has gotten worse each of the last two years and looks to be even worse this year. Boise State allowed 198 and 167 yards in the last two games rushing and they have had their own issues running the ball at just 3.25 yards per carry. Boise State's offense is having issues as well as their once highly touted QB Brett Rypien has yet to throw a TD and is splitting time with a Kansas transfer.
BYU's veteran leaders on the defense tried to take over the game last week and they did an admirable job considering the offense put them in terrible position. I think they will have another great game here in what should be a tight game. Senior LB Fred Warner will lead the team as they continue to be a very good defense allowing just 44% TD's in the red zone. Allowing just 3.81 ypc. Last year on the road BYU held Boise to 129 yards rushing and that version of Boise's offense was much better with the likes of RB Jeremy McNichols. This year they are getting most of their rushing yards from the QB Cozart. The year before BYU held Boise to just 64 yards in their home game against Boise.
In order for Boise to win this game big like they need to. They'll have to run the ball extremely well to beat this inflated line against a desperate BYU team. I don't see it happening. 

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