Clemson -3 1.1% Free Play - 14-3-1 ATS since last year on Free CFB Plays

I like Clemson in this spot even after a big game. I still think this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder as defending champions. They sport the best defense in the country with the best defensive line. Who better to stop Lousiville's Lamar Jackson? I expect Jackson to really struggle in this game, and I expect Clemson's offense to look a lot better than they did against Auburn.  I understand why a lot of sharps are liking Louisville here.  Afterall they nearly beat Clemson on the road last year and if it wasn't for WR James Quick (gone) running out of bounds short of the marker.  If you forgot.  Here is the play:

Louisville is a different team than a season ago and so is Clemson.  Obviously Clemson lost a ton on offense, but this is a team that perennially has a top 10 recruiting class.  Clemson is also starting a Jr. QB in Kelly Bryant who is a dual threat himself and I think Louisville's defense is much more vulnerable.  Louisville's defense has allowed 677 passing yards, 7 TD's and 3 INT's so there are clearly holes that Clemson can take advantage of.  Louisville's offense returned just 4 starters and lost 3 starters on the offensive line that has looked bad at times in two games.  Keep in mind that everyone is considering Louisville the same team as last year.  They faced Purdue and North Carolina.  Purdue's defense is definitely improved under Jeff Brohm, but by how much?  They ranked 106th a year ago in yards per play and allowed 38ppg.  North Carolina on the other hand ranked 42nd, but seem to be far worse this year through two games.  The Tarheels allowed 100+ yards rushing, and 363 passing yards against Cal, who brought in a defensive coach and had to come play an early game on the east coast to start the year.  Cal also only had 6 returners on offense with a new QB.  My point is we really don't know what Louisville's offense is yet.  On the other hand we do know what Clemson's defense is.

Clemson held Auburn to under 200 yards and under 2 yards per play in a very misleading final as they were +167 yards in that game, but only won by 8 which was a bit misleading for how they dominated the game after a couple early drives by Auburn.  Holding Auburn to 6 points and the way they did it was truly impressive. 

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