I am going to take Central Florida here tonight as this is very close to a championship game. I just feel that the Knights have the better coaching and have played better down the stretch compared with East Carolina who is 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a winning record and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 following a SU win. I'm not a big trend guy, but the 4-15 ATS vs. a winning team speaks to me about coaching.
UCF's losses against Penn State and Missouri who both have top 10 defenses are acceptable while their loss to Uconn may look a bit weird, East Carolina also nearly lost the Huskies, but almost did so at home. Connecticut is always strong up front and again I'm looking to the defensive side of the ball for both teams and I think that's what gives UCF a big advantage here.
Central Florida is #1 in passing yard efficiency defense and East Carolina really has not played anyone at this level yet. VA Tech, Uconn and Temple were all top 80 units and those were all close games or losses for East Carolina. The rest of the defenses they have faced were outside the top 80 as far as yards/pass attempt. Shane Carden had a great year, but he definitely slowed down towards the end of the season and now he faces his toughest test against a defense allowing a 75QB rating in conference play. When you look at the conference numbers these two teams are about the same just with different strength and weaknesses. Central Florida's red zone defense will be the difference.
