Off to a very bad start this week.  Last night we lost the starting QB from FIU on the first series, and UAB looks like hot garbage, but confident a hot streak is on the horizon.

San Diego State -6.5 3.3% play 

As you are all aware I'm a big Army supporter, and had them the last two years on the money line as max plays over Navy.  This is just a bad match-up for Army in my opinion.  This is by far the most complete team they will have faced outside of Ohio State of course.  Rashaad Penny will play at RB for San Diego State, and he is a dynamic player.  When we look across the board San Diego State is top 50 in YPP offense, defense,  rushing ypc offense and defense, and QB rating offense and defense.  They come in top 30 for 4 of those 6 categories.  Compare that with Army who is in the top 100 in ypp offense and rushing ypc.  San Diego State even has the edge in special teams and TO margin.

We know Army has to run the ball to win games.  They'll go up against a San Diego State defense ranked 22nd against the run.  They are also used to seeing the option each year facing Air Force, and Rocky Long for years has had a lot of success defending the option.  To beat San Diego State you must have a QB, in their two losses they faced an average opponent QB rating of 39, Army ranks 130.  You also must have a good defense particularly against the run.  Army ranks 102nd in ypp defense, and 108th vs. the run.  Army can defend the option but against a pro style offense like this with the threat of the QB and speed they will struggle and give up some points like they did against North Texas in their 49-42 loss to close the year before the Army/Navy game.  In San Diego State's 2 losses vs. Fresno & Boise State they both had very good defenses ranking 13th and 25th in yards per play allowed and 15th and 34th vs. the run.  San Diego State also struggled and should have lost against Northern Illinois earlier in the year who also had a top defense.


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