Texas +235 3% play
TCU's bubble got burst last week as they lost an ugly game at Iowa State 14-7 without scoring an offensive TD. TCU's QB Kenny Hill turned the ball over twice inside Iowa State's 10 yard line and his confidence has to be shaken. Last year he had a bad game at Kansas of all places throwing 1 TD and 3 INT's in a 1 point victory. TCU then went 2-4 the rest of the way as he threw just 3 TD's and had 5 INT's over the last 6 games. TCU could certainly turn to the running game, but that goes right into the strength of this Texas defense that is allowing 3.09 ypc on the season 2.23 ypc on the road.

Texas is 3-0 ATS as a dog this year, but they did not taste a victory in any of those games, but they did come close. They took USC to OT but lost by 3, they had a 4th quarter lead against Oklahoma that they lost, and then they lost by 3 against Oklahoma State where I felt Sam Ehlinger was clearly playing injured with a concussion. Ironically, Ehlinger sits out in a meaningless game against Baylor, but is probable this week.

Tom Herman is 14-0 ATS and 11-3 straight up as a dog dating back to 2012 when he was an offensive coordinator with Ohio State. He's said countless times this season that a win over a ranked team would define whether or not this season was successful. Here is the only opportunity left for the regular season and I feel like they get it here. In reality Texas has faced a tougher schedule having played USC and Oklahoma. TCU's toughest opponents were Iowa State and Oklahoma State. I thought Texas played better in both those match-ups against those common opponents, especially defensively.

Really excited to see what Sam Ehlinger has this week. He did not have a good game against Oklahoma State although we cashed that ticket and I compared him to Tim Tebow. I think the concussion like symptoms had a lot to do with it.


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