(2-0 THIS YEAR ON EB PLAYS)
After watching the tape of Ball State vs. Auburn I still like this play. Auburn was just a bit more stronger and faster for Ball State. However, they were driving to go up 14-0 when they fumbled and Auburn recovered. The game was basically decided in the 2nd quarter as the second half was 21-20 Auburn in a final rout of 54-30. The best thing to take from this game for Ball State is two things. Their offense got going, and Saturday is a new season as this will be their first game in the MAC this year!
Kelly Page impressed me at one point completing 5 for 5 of his passes, and Ball State has veterans on defense that shifted from 3-4 to a 4-3 which stopped Auburn on a 4th and 1 early which was definitely impressive they got speed and are able to tackle running backs for losses. So why did the offense pick up? They changed the offense to a mid range gameplan or what I like to call the Chad Pennington plan. Less riskier for turn overs and higher percentage throws. The rushing game produced 146 yards against SEC opponent Auburn last week. This will be a desperate Ball State team at home that beat up Toledo 31-0. I think Ball State has a major defensive advantage in Saturday's game. Toledo can put up the points, but I'll take the defensive team with an improving offense at home catching points any day.
Ball State falls under an interesting trend, Since 2007 season teams that were on the road for 2 games now returning home to face a division as a dog with all lines are 29-11-1 ATS winning by a margin of -1.3 points. Don't be surprised to see Ball State repeat last years win vs. Toledo. Also Toledo falls into one I like as well. Since 2007 season teams after being a dog now playing a division as a favorite 3-6.5 points are 10-30-2 ATS with a MOV 1.9 points.
Lesser of the two games but not by much as I like Wisky to win this game out right against Minnesota team that I feel is over rated. They got beat on the ground big time against Cal and Best and just don't have the men up front to defend Wisconsin here on Saturday. Expect John Clay to have a big game and their QB Scott Tolzien to get involved. He's been one of the nation's most efficient passers and is better than Cal's Kevin Riley in my opinion who threw for 252 passing yards. Best part is he does not make mistakes. Mike Kafka from Northwestern also put up big numbers last week vs. Minnesota's secondary with 309 passing yards. Wisconsin has a very balanced attack with 791 yards rushing on the ground with 10 TDs and then the 921 in the air with 8TD's. Garrett Graham will have a big day for Wisconsin at TE and will continue to impress the NFL scouts! So how would Minny win this game? Maybe if they had Favre on their team like the Vikings, just kidding. They would have to get to Tolzien and they certainly can do that, but Wisconsin is getting healthy on the offensive line. They have not given up a single sack in 3 of the 4 games.
Minny's Adam Weber will be the key to the game as he has a chance to dink and dunk all over Wisconsin, but I think Wisconsin which has the tendency to make turnovers will make one or two that will decide or end the game. What I like about Wisconsin is they are not your traditional boring 4-3 defense of lining up and just playing. They are aggressive and they fly around the ball which is what has led to their leading 12 turnovers forced. They've also been able to get pressure with a 4 man blitz which will be key if Wisconsin gets up on Minnesota and Weber goes back to pass a lot.
Despite playing 4 games at home Wisconsin falls into a trend since the 2007 season where teams who played 4 games at home now away all lines are 19-8 ATS. Look for Wisconsin to continue this trend here on Saturday.
