Pittsburgh @ Rutgers (8:00 pm et)
[size=150:39quigj1][color=#FF0000:39quigj1][b:39quigj1]Freddy Wills's Pick[/size:39quigj1]
I'm not sure what so much of the public saw against Uconn to make Pitt the over whelming pick here on Friday night when they visit Rutgers. They trailed 21-6 and came back to win 24-21 which was impressive, but against an anemic CT offense it just does not impress me as much.
Rutgers has just as much of a solid defense as Pitt. Although the quality opponent is not there for Rutgers through their first 5 games they are still facing 26th ranked passing offense, which should result in a good game against Pitt's QB Bill Stull. They have faced three top 35 passing offenses in their FBS schedule and although Rutgers is ranked 86th in pass defense that is why. Rutgers is averaging 3.6 sacks per game while Pitt is averaging 4 so it should be whichever offensive line that plays better will do the most damage in my opinion. Rutgers is ranked 7th in rush defense, but they have faced an average 82nd rushing offense so are they phony or do they just need the opportunity to face a good running team. Well we will find out tonight as they will have to stop Dion Lewis, the Big East leading rusher as a freshmen.
I think Pitt will be able to run the ball and the Rutgers will let them, but Stull won't have his way through the air. For the Pitt defense the weakness is the pass defense that is ranked 75th, and they have not played good passing teams. Their average opponent is ranked 65th in passing offense while Rutgers is ranked 93rd that is because their freshmen QB Savage has only played 3 games, and is still learning. Savage is 3-0 in his starts, and he goes here tonight in a game where he definitely has the advantage at home where he takes care of the ball. Look for Savage to get Tim Brown, and talented freshmen Sanu involved early. Brown lit up Pitt last year if you remember when Pitt had their eye on Kenny Britt. Sanu has the size and athleticism to have a game like Brown did if Pitt puts coverage on Brown.
Stull is coming off his worst game as a starter throwing 2 interceptions and one that was taken back for a TD. He can not have that kind of game on the road here tonight. This crowd is going to be wild and I'm interested to see how Stull played well against Louisville on Friday night, but this will be a different environment for him against a defensive line that can get to the QB and is battle tested in the passing game. Rutgers secondary is one of the best at taking the ball away and on the other side Rutgers does not turn the ball over. They stand at +2.4 turnover margin and are 2nd in the nation. If Rutgers can force a turnover or two they can win this game. Overall I expect a defensive battle between two Big East teams. Coach Schiano knows this team well and has beaten them 4 times in a row! I'm sure he'll have a game plan to stop Lewis and Stull.
