The difficulty in the schedule for LSU is much more challenging than what Penn State saw as they had out of conference games against Temple, Akron, Syracuse and Eastern Illinois. Yikes, that spells over rated to me. This will be the best defense they have faced all year except for maybe Ohio State who is almost a carbon copy of LSU in my opinion, but a carbon copy playing in the strongest conference in the nation. LSU ranked #26 in defense is known for their defense and they have gone up against an average #56 offensive attack. The worry here and why they are not favored is Penn State's strong defense ranked #9 overall vs. LSU's poor offense #107. Well I am here to tell you not to worry. Look what Ohio State did scored 31 points on the road. LSU has been one of the better teams in bowl games over recent years and even better when they leave their conference for non-conference play. As they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowls and 4-1 in their last 5 as under dogs in bowls. They are also 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.

I just can't trust a Penn State team to shut down LSU when they have faced an average defense ranked 81 in the country. I believe LSU will be able to move the ball and I believe the LSU defense will be able to hold Clark and Royster in check for most of the afternoon. Also don't count on Penn State's run defense to shut down LSU as LSU ran for 133 against Alabama. Their issues have been running for losses all year long and I think a lot of that has been corrected in the time off.

The difference in this game will be special teams and turnover margin. LSU ranked #21 in turnover margin ahead of Penn State and features one of the best special team games. LSU Trindon Holliday is the nation's #1 ranked punt returner at 18.64 ypc and penn State's return game is abysmal at best. This will be the difference in what should be a very close game. In the end I think the game comes down to a field goal which is why I recommend paying the 10 cents to get this line at +3. If you want the value is there on the money line as well.


I really can not stay away from the other Bowl Game at 1pm and that is the Gator bowl. Despite West Virginia's struggles against the ACC in the past 3-11 ATS in their last 14 and Bowl Games 2-9 ATS in their last 7 I think they have finally met their match in FSU.

Florida State has one of the worst defenses of a bowl team that I have seen all year. multiple times i have seen this team just look awful. They lost at home to Big East South Florida and South Florida is one of the worst teams on the road. South Florida did beat West Virginia in a game I had South Florida as a POD. That was a situational spot on a Friday night prime time game that they did it on so I don't look into that as much when comparing these two teams. What I do look at is how FSU fared against a team that could run the ball and against Clemson and Georgia Tech both solid running teams that could not pass the ball all that well just like West Virginia it was their defense getting rolled over. Against Clemson they gave up 40 points and lost by 16 and against Georgia Tech they gave up 49 and scored 44. Now West Virginia's defense is probably somewhere between Clemson and Georgia Tech.

I think West Virginia finally wants to win this game, and I believe they will over a Florida State team that is getting more credit than they deserve partially due to Bobby Bowden coaching his last game. I don't buy all that crap in the end it's how the teams play on the field. West Virginia has had a challenging schedule and they came close to beating the Bearcats and handed a very good Pitt team a loss. This is the worst defense West Virginia will face all year and Noel Devine should go off and have a huge game.

Where to find Freddy?