.
I know the disadvantages in this game for South Florida. They are pretty evident going on the road and the motivation can not be as high as it is for Northern Illinois here and that is why this game will be closer than many think. BUT, Overall I think the 7 points is still too little. I believe South Florida takes advantage here they have huge advantages in speed and athleticism and they have faced a strength of schedule that's 120 points higher than Northern Illinois. Their opponents and opp-opp win% are more than .100 points higher.
Northern Illinois has gotten it done with their running game and defense, but you can not be one dimensional against a solid defense like South Florida. South Florida is loaded with talent with next-level DE Jason Pierre-Paul and George Selvie. Tackles Aaron Harris and Terrell McClain have the size to stop the up the middle runs that Spann and Brown will try to bring. Overall Northern Illinois offense is average at 79 in total yards in the country. They have faced a weak schedule with an average opp defense at #70. When they played top defenses (3X) They lost by 14, 7, and 8 and this may just be the most talented defense they'll face all year long.
South Florida on the other hand when they faced weak offenses they were 3-1 winning by 12, 14, and 22.
