Why? Well Auburnâs offense just is not explosive, and struggle when they get into scoring position. Their passing game ranks 126th in explosiveness now that Duke Williams is off the team they really do not have down the field guys, and Arkansas is pretty good along the defensive line ranking 5th in adjusted line and 28th in rushing S&P.
On the flip side this is a bad match up for Auburnâs defensive front. Itâs actually the worst front 7 that Arkansas has faced all year and I expect them to really just play their brand of football. Hold onto the ball for 35 minutes and run it down their throat. They too have struggled in the red zone and I wouldnât be surprised to see that repeat itself as they are 44% in red zone TD%. They too are 117th in explosive ness from the running game, and although they rank 23rd in explosiveness in the passing game I donât think itâs wise for them to try to make too many big plays down the field knowing that Auburnâs 1st in explosiveness pass defense. If there is one thing this Auburn team does well is they limit the big plays. They play a bend but donât break defense, which matches up well against Arkansas and their slow methodical offensive game plan. Auburnâs defense is not that bad in that they are ranked 59th in adjusted line yards.
I expect an Arkansas win, but wouldnât be surprised with either outcome. I really like the fact that we are getting over 50 points with the idea that Auburnâs defense is terrible, and Auburn should also score points when I donât think that is the case in this match up. Auburn also not running their typical offense ranking 101st in pace and I donât see any reasons why that changes here. The under is 7-0 in Arkansas last 7 games following a bye week, 10-1 in their last 11 overall.
