I’m just going to take the Hokies on the money line here with points at a premium with a total at 37.5 points. However, I think the 4 OT game against Duke, despite it being a loss gives the Hokies some offensive momentum heading into this game which is huge when you talk about playing Boston College. Tech was able to get a lot of reps in the red zone against a Duke defense that is no joke. Duke actually ranks 3rd overall in the nation in yards per play allowed ahead of Boston College.
The Hokies actually have the tools to move the ball on Boston College. They have a tailback that can run and take it to the edge in Travon McMillan averaging 6.36 yards per carry, but more importantly Michael Brewer can throw the ball he had 3 TD’s and 270 yards against a Duke pass defense that is really good. Boston College is better vs. the run, and have some question marks in the secondary. They rank 114th in defensive back havoc rate (interceptions + pass break ups). Brewer can stretch the field a bit to as this offense has a 8.1 yards per pass attempt on the road. Boston College is also dealing with a ton of injuries and don’t even know who their QB is.

Boston College covered last week at Louisville, but had only 79 total yards. I leaned towards BC last week, and they covered, but I was not about to back them in that game and glad I didn’t have to rely on a blocked punt return TD and 4 forced turnovers to cover the spread. Special teams are not something that Boston College even typically enjoys an edge in ranking 126th in special teams efficiency compared to Virginia Tech’s 8th ranking.

The other thing I like in this match up is the fact that Virginia Tech is not turning the ball over for the most art, and they are much better in the red zone and on third down which is probably the biggest key of the game here. Virginia Tech’s defense allows 22% on third down in their wins, and Boston College 47% in their wins, but BC is converting just 21% in conference play and are 0-5. The Hokies do not posess the defense they have in the past, but Bud Foster can still put together a game plan against a team like Boston College ranked dead last (128th in yards per play)

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