I love the Bearcats in this spot, they were supposed to be the favorites in this conference yet they come into this game at 5-3 and have had to overcome adversity in multiple scenarios this year which have made them a better team. I really think they come into this game with a chip on their shoulder, and hungry for a chance to get back into this race. You could argue they have played 3 or 4 teams that are better than Houston. They played Memphis, Temple, Miami, and BYU losing 3 of the 4. Their game against Temple they absolutely should have won as they were +262 yards in that game, but turned the ball over 5 times which is a big key in this game. If the Bearcats can be no more than -1 TO in this game there is no way they don’t cover the spread in my opinion. They will have a shot to win this game. They are -9 on the season, Houston +15 biggest thing that separates these two teams, but Cincinnati has cleaned it up with only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games.

Strength of schedule means a lot here. Houston has played Louisville and that’s about it. Louisville with a nice defense, but absolutely no offense. There is a lot to like about this match up when you consider the hype Houston is getting, and the fact that they most certainly are looking past a 5-3 team and towards the showdown with Memphis next week. Houston has the 123rd toughest schedule, and I don’t think I would call it tough. Here are the defenses Houston has faced since Louisville, 127, 113, 119, 87, 117, 40 (Vanderbilt 4 TO’s, no offense). I’m not saying the Bearcats have a good defense, but they have a better offense than any of these teams, and they are great on third down allowing 24% conversions, they are also great in the red zone and have improved on defense as the season has gone along. Cinci is tested too holding Memphis and BYU on the road to 5-22 on third downs.

I also think this line is inflated the last 3 games Houston has gotten into the rankings by covering the spread and then some. Their last 3 games have a MOV ATS of 23, 28, and 14 that is sure to get you too much credit the following week. I mentioned Cinci’s offense which is ranked 9th in yards per play. Here is a look at the offenses Houston has faced 108, 84, 38 (absolutely no defense), 95 (allowed 28 points), 120, 122, 117. This team relies on pressuring the QB and forcing turnovers ranked #1 in both. Cinci is 38th in protecting their QB, but probably better with Kiel in there, since he missed a few games Hayden Moore. Moore much less experienced took 11 sacks in 159 passing attempts compared to Kiel who took 3 in 162.

Where to find Freddy?