Northwestern gets their star QB back which is the exact opposite of last year's match up at Wrigley Field when they started a freshmen in his first start after Persa's injury. Dan Persa last year threw for 2,581 yards 15 TD 4 INT's rushed for 519 in just 9 games and he had a nation's best 73.5% completion percentage. He may be rusty early, but it's still a huge advantage that will open up this offense a lot this week vs. a ranked team looking for revenge of last year's embarassing defeat where they just gave up too many big plays in the running game. Northwestern comes into this game with an extra week to prepare and they should be motivated to play a very physical game on defense that should keep this tight.
Illinois exposed themselves last week while they have been able to get into the backfield Western Michigan turned to a quick passing game that turned in results in a 3 point loss to Illinois and I'm sure Northwestern will be looking to do the same they definitely have the talent at QB and WR to make that kind of a game plan. Illinois has lived off turnovers early and penalties from opponents in close games. When you are a heavy running team you usually do not blow opponents out and I feel the same will be the case on Saturday. Northwestern does not commit penalties and they do not turn the ball over which will keep this game close. Northwestern lost before their off week to a triple option offense in Army that took advantage. That does not worry me because it's hard to prepare for that kind of option offense when you are not used to facing it. It was a good warm up for Illinois option rushing attack and you better believe they were looking ahead to this game and that played a part for their loss vs. a very under rated Army team.
Illinois is just 1-15 in their last 16 years in Big Ten openers and 8-19 ATS in their last 27 vs. a winning team 2-14 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite 3.5-10pts. Northwestern on the other hand is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road dog games and 17-5 in their last 22 as a road dog 3.5 -10 pts as they almost always stay in these type of games.
We backed Temple in back to back weeks in fact we had them at +290 out right winners last week and we are 3-0 in their games this year, but this week we fade them. They come off a huge win and I think they will have a let down this week. Toledo has the 26th ranked passing attack and Temple will be tested in the secondary. Temple is coming after opposing attacks, but they have yet faced a team that can pass like Toledo which has had a tough schedule to start the year playing right with Ohio State a very similar team to Temple on the road where they lost 22-27 after leading in the 4th quarter. They also played right with Syracus before winning in regulation but a blown call on an extra point and they lose in over time. Austin Dantin led the offense on 6 scoring drives vs. Syracus and should be able to move the ball enough to score points vs. Temple. Temple's offense is still one dimensional, but they pose the best RB in the land in my opinion in Bernard Pierce. Toledo knows this team very well this is a conference game and Temple will run the ball all day Pierce got 40 carries vs. them last year and I expect in the end for it to be a close game. Toledo is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 in conference play.
