Don't miss out on my max 5.5* NCAAF POD - as we have gone 3-1 in our last 3 weeks including our big win with Michigan St last week. Don't miss out it comes with a 3.5* bonus in a big C-USA match up between SMU and Smiss. The package also comes with an in depth analysis for both plays which you won't want to miss!


Yes I'm backing Northwestern again. At 2-4 and with some easy games on the docket this team still has a chance to go bowling and have a positive season. This match up could not come at the right time as Penn State's passing game is among the worst in the country. Their QB's are completing 50.9% of their passes and are just not accurate. Northwestern has really struggled to get off the field the last 3 weeks allowing opponents to convert 60% of their 3rd downs, but those opponents were very good on 3rd downs two of the 3 were over 50% on the season and now they get a break with Penn State who is 39% for the season.

On the other side of things Northwestern has too much offense for Penn State to win by more than a field goal. Dan Persa is the nation's most accurate passer the same was true last year and since his return this team is converting 54% of his passes. This is the same team that had Michigan and Illinois on the ropes in the 3rd quarter. Penn State barely won at Indiana and Indiana has been god awful and they've been worse on defense ranked 105th in total defense yet Penn State still only scored 16 points. The Penn State offense also lack a go to WR after losing top target Derek Moye again this is a great break for Northwestern that needs a win in the worst way.

Home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and Penn State is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games while Northwestern is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points. The secret weapon that many don't know about and it's going to come through in this match up in a huge way is Kain Colter. He's a real weapon started the year at QB he can play WR and wild cat. He's a huge threat in the running game and he'll get touches at QB once again. Okay so many may think Penn State can just run all over Northwestern and keep Persa off the field, well that's not true their defense is holding opponents to 3.59 ypc over the last 3 games against some pretty good rushing offenses in Illinois and Michigan in particular. Penn State's ranked 7th in pass defense but,

They have not faced a QB all season long. Please name one? Persa is arguably one of the best QB's in the league and the 7th ranked Penn State pass defense will be exposed. Don't forget Northwestern had a 21-0 lead before Penn State got a TD with 3 seconds left last year at home and that changed momentum of hte game as Penn State won 35-21 outscoring Northwestern 28-0 in the 2nd half. Don't think Northwestern doesn't remember that, and Colter is a big enough of a threat to keep Penn State from stopping Northwestern on 3rd down.


Smiss had a huge win over Navy and then they went on a bye. Not a good thing last year they had a huge win and then gave up 50 points to UAB at home. SMU is clearly more of a threat than UAB and JJ McDermott is 5-0 since taking over at starter and he's led an explosive offense that has looked good against TCU and UCF two respected defenses.

SMU also ranks 24th in total defense and this is the difference maker I believe. They average 3 sacks a game which is first in the conference. They can stop the run which is what SMISS relies on with 6.04 ypc at home and SMU is allowing opponents just 2.90 ypc. They are also forcing field goals with only 50% of their opponents red zone trips turning into TD's. Smiss defense has rebounded from early struggles, but they have not faced a balanced attack since maybe LA Tech which they only won by two at home. SMU just got back another weapon in Sr. WR Cole Beasley last year and he had 10 receptions for 134 yards vs. UCF. He balanced the offense even more that's led by C-USA's leading rusher Zach Line who is just a beast. I think SMU is clicking at the right time and Smiss going on a bye was at the wrong time.

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