I look for Iowa to return home where they are 5-0 and come up with a big win vs. a Michigan team that continues to over achieve in my opinion. They lost to a very bad Minnesota team but returning home should be the difference and I believe the defense will have a chip on their shoulder being under dogs. Iowa is 15-5-1 ATS following an ATS loss, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a home dog, while people continue to over rate a Michigan team that on paper has a very good defense, but watching the games I just have mixed opinion on them. They are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 as a favorite 3.5-10 points and do not deserve to be road favorites against a consistently good program like Iowa.
Iowa did beat Northwestern and Pitt at home so their 5-0 record is not all to bad teams, and they have a running game and a passing game. Marcus Coker in his last 3 games alone has 515 yards and 6 TD, Jeff Vandenberg also has 17 TD's just 4 interceptions while completing 62.2% of his passes for 1918 yards. Michigan's defense that everyone is excited about has only faced 2 balanced offenses in Notre Dame and Michigan State and Iowa's is a bit better than Mich State and a little worst than Notre Dame, and those were the two games Michigan's defense struggled. This is just Michigan's 3rd road game. Iowa should have the advantage in mental mistakes as Michigan has 12 interceptions to Iowa's 4 and Iowa is one of the nation's least penalized teams with just 4.4 per game.
Uconn is 22-8 ATS following an ATS loss, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Basically whomever is home usually wins. Syracuse beat West Virginia at home, but then fell 27-10 to Louisville. Uconn has 3 extra days of preparation that should benefit them. This is a team that was right in their game vs. West Virginia and beat USF at home holding them to 10 points. Now the key is Uconn's pass defense that took a huge hit vs. Pitt as Sunseri beat them for 419 yards, but I think they can get away from that type of game by doing what they do best running the ball.
Syracuse allowing 4.69 yards per game on the road on the ground and Uconn finally found their guy in Lyle McCombs 25 carries for 124 yards in his last game. CT defense is in the Top 30 in run defense, sacks and tackles for loss. Syracuse will have it's hands full their offense is not nearly the same on the road and they continue to creat penalty after penalty including 12 in their last game while Uconn is extremely strong up front and play mistake free football as they are +4 in turnover margin on the year. I think they should be able to get themselves in manageable 3rd downs for the first time this year as Syracuse is allowing 50% conversions on third down in their road games this year. It's not like they are playing great teams they almost lost to Tulane 37-34. Don't sleep on QB Johny McEntree as he came out in the 2nd half 15-20 for 173 yards and 2TD's vs. Pitt and I think he can be efficient and keep Syracuse on their heels.
