This is the game we have all been waiting for. In my opinion these teams are mirror images of each other. LSU has had the tougher schedule so the defensive stats, rushing stats, and 3rd down stats are slightly better on Alabama's side. That along with them being home is the reason why they are favorites, but I do not believe they have the better team. I thought this would be a -3.5 type game and because these teams are so even and both have great defenses and pro style offenses that lead to low scoring games I'm taking the under dog.
LSU just has the better game in my opinion they have the advantage in the passing game with two experienced QB';s that have different strengths while Alabama has a QB with just 9 starts that has not seen a pass defense like this at all on the year. The two teams that have a defense remotely close to LSU has been Penn State and Florida and in both those games he was not nearly as good. Vs. Florida he was 12-25 for just 140 yards while LSU was a combined 10-14 215 yards 2 TD. LSU has the ability for big plays and I'm not sold on Alabama's secondary. I look for Ruben Randle to make another big play as he did last year in this match up with a 75 yard TD catch. I mentioned turnovers. Both teams do not turn it over much, but Alabama has forced just 14 turnovers, and they have given it up 8 times for a +6 margin while LSU has just been on a different level with 18 forced and 3 lost for a +15 margin. This team just makes plays to score points other than their offense and in a big defensive game like this one that will be the key.
LSU additionally has the edge on the season in time of possession, and when we talk about stopping the run Alabama has been dominant this year allowing 1.67 yards per carry, but hold on who have they faced with a running game. We saw some plays early in the Florida game but then Florida lost their starting QB and Florida became one dimensional. Outside that they faced Penn State which we really can't say much about other than they would not compete in the SEC. Penn State is over rated but they had 107 yards rushing vs. Alabama in what was a competitive game early. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15. I'll be rooting for LSU the entire way, but won't be surprised to see Alabama pull it out by a field goal.. Both teams are pro style teams with run first mentalities and have good kicking games. There is a lot on the game so expect it to be played very closely.
