Love the Dolphins here as the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on Sunday following a Monday night game. A hell of a Monday night game it was and an emotional roller coaster to get there. Yes, the Chiefs are playing better, but the Dolphins are not nearly as bad as their record indicates and I'm going to stick with them to cover the spread as they've played in some close games.
They also have been able to run the ball as of late and the Chiefs are ranked 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Dolphins get Daniel Thomas back and Bush is coming off a 100 yard game don't be surprised to see the Dolphins steal this game out right. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team and the Chiefs are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite.
Colts now return home where they will have a major edge at rushing the QB. Yes, I think the Falcons win, but closer than many think. the offensive line for the Falcons has been a mess all year and again they'll be without Sam Baker. Both Freeney and Mathis will be anxious with no sacks in their last 3 games. Ironically all of those were on the road. Will Matt Ryan and the Falcons stay with the run first mentality with Julio Jones returning? I'm not so sure they will and that will put them in big trouble on the road in my opinion.
On the other side it's not like the Falcons are playing dominating defense. They give up yards in chunks and Painter at home had 277 yards 2 TD and 0 Interceptions. Look for Garcon and Wayne to get a lot of quick targets in the passing game. Falcons are 1-13 all time vs. the Colts.
