ULLAF +4.5
One team is thrilled to be in the New Orleans bowl and the other is disappointed as they had higher hopes for 2011, but itâs still a bowl game for San Diego State, but Lafayette just 200 miles away from the dome will have what feels like a home environment. Itâs another team that can run with the best of them as Ronnie Hillman has been one of the best in the nation, but Lafayette has a very athletic front that can and will shut down a running game. They allowed just 3.84 ypc this year and allowed 200+ yards rushing just 2 times this year vs. Oklahoma State and Western Kentucky. They can get into the backfield time and time again as they had 84 tackles for loss.
SDST does have Lindley, but I question if heâs really the better QB in this game as he really had a down year despite 20 TD 8 interceptions he only completed 52.5% of his passes and that will play in the hands of ULLAF 3rd down defense as they are limiting opponents to 36.8% conversions while SDST is at 44% both converting and allowing opponents. I really expect Lafayette to come up with some big stops that will turn this game in their favor. After all they do have Blaine Gautier a dual threat with 63.2% of his pass and 20 TD to 5 interceptions for a 150 QB rating. They can run to with him and San Diego State has allowed 5.55 ypc on the road this year.
Red Zone defense well San Diego State allows 75% TDâs when opponents get down there so I like the number of +4.5 I think if they do lose itâll be by 3 or 4. Expect the extra week that Lafayette gets to pay dividends along with the home field advantage and their place kicker 16-18 while SD ST doesnât have a kicking game 5-13. Lastly San Diego Stateâs pass defense which is getting credit is not that good the times theyâve faced a passing team theyâve failed Fresno had 148 QB rating, Boise 174, Wyoming 167, and TCU 156.
