Western Mich +3 (3.3* play)
This game is pretty dead even so it only makes sense to take the under dog.  It’s Purdue with the strength of their running game and Western Mich with the strength of their passing game.  Purdue though lost their most talented RB at the end of the season in Ralph Bolden with an ACL so they’ll go RB by committee.  Alex Carder to Jordan White has been an exciting combo to watch 127 receptions for 1646 yards and 16 TD’s.  Alex Carder could be starting for most Big Ten teams actually and he makes a lot of audibles at the line of scrimmage which should make the difference today in my opinion.  Purdue was the best pass defense in the Big Ten from an efficiency standpoint this year 58.6%, but that’s because they did not face many QB’s that could pass.  Notre Dame’s Tommy Rees was 61% fro 264 yards and 3 TD 0 INT, Wisconsin’s Russel Wilson was 75% for 241 yards 2 TD 0 INT.  Of all the bad QB’s they faced they only picked off 8 passes.  Even Iowa’s James Vandenberg had 68.8% 273 yards 3 TD 0 INT.  I expect Carder to go over 300 yards 3TD and he doesn’t make many mistakes so 0 interceptions.
 
On the flip side can Western Mich compete with a Big Ten school? They’ve shown that ability in the past they went on the road to Illinois and lost 23-20 they just couldn’t stop the run giving up nearly 300 yards, but as I said I’m not so sure Purdue has quite the explosiveness that Illinois has.  It also helps this game will be played in the state of Michigan at Ford Field so small advantage to Western Michigan.  Both team’s feature a DT that should be playing on Sunday’s in Western Michigan’s MAC defensive POY Drew Norwak 20 TFL and 10 sacks the 300lb commands double teams most of the time same goes for the 305 lb DT from Purdue Kawan Short 17.5 TFL and 6.5 sacks.
 
Western Mich’s defense is under rated most of their defensive struggles came vs. Toledo and Northern Illinois two of the nation’s best offenses despite being out of the MAC they have tons of talent more so than Purdues offensive scheme.  I think they’ll have no trouble moving the ball on Purdue and the key will be what they do when they get in the red zone.  Purdue is allowing 64% TD’s and they are only scoring 64% on their 47 attempts while Western Michigan comes into this one converting 72% of their 55 attempts and have allowed 54% TD’s both better than the Boilermakers who can not be as excited to be in this bowl game as Western Michigan.  Both teams commit over 7 penalties a game so expect this game to drag on a bit and Western Michigan kicker John Potter has 34 touchbacks which should limit another strength of Purdue the kick off return game especially in a dome.  Purdue is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite.

Where to find Freddy?