Both teams have identical offenses from a statistical perspective. They both have two of the nation's best running backs and are run first type of teams but can also throw with two of the more mistake free QB's. The difference between the two is speed and power. We know all about Oregon's speed and the challenge teams have to face when they play them and on the flip side Wisconsin is more about power on both the offense and defense. They'll hold the advantage in strength and in the past that is the one thing Oregon has had issues with as they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big Ten. They are also losers of 6 of 8 of their last games. Give a team to prepare for Oregon's offense and they've been able to come up with a great game plan.
Let's look at the QB's. Wilson was behind only Robert Griffin in QB rating and put together one of the best season's ever with a rating of 191 as he had 31 TD and just 3 interceptions while completing 72.5% while Thomas was also solid 30 TD only 6 interceptions 61.4% 2,493 yards. Oregon gave up a ton of yard through the air this year and Wisconsin seems to have the edge in the QB and the pass defense ranking 3rd in pass defense and 22nd in pass rating defense Oregon was 32nd, but 86th in total pass defense. Also Wilson put his numbers up on better pass defenses ranked on average 62nd while Oregon faced an average 79th rated passer rating. I trust Wilson more than Thomas when the game is on the line.
Run offense and defense this is where this game is really even because statistically Oregon is better, but Wisconsin has the ability to really beat up Oregon's front 7 for long drives and take this game over. Oregon averaged 6.53 yards per carry and Wisconsin averaged 5.48. Wisconsin did it against 59th ranked average run defense from a ypc perspective while Oregon did it against a 71st average ranking. Overall Oregon is better in run defense than Wisconsin but one could argue Oregon doesn't see as many run first offenses in the Pac 12.
With all we have gone over these teams to me are too even and the advantages are stronger on Wisconsin side for one they are +16 in turnover margin and only 4.9 penalties while Oregon still good at +9 but are averaging 7.2 penalties. Also advantage on Wisconsin side converting 54.14% on third down to Oregon's 44.97%, defensively on 3rd down they are both even and in the red zone Wisconsin has gotten there 7 more times and have scored TD's 87% of the time to Oregon's 76% and defensively they have allowed opponents to get there 19 less times allowing just 57% TD's on 28 attempts while Oregon 47 attempts and 59.5% but 76.5% over their last 5 games has shown some weaknesses including giving up over 30 points to UCLA in the Pac 12 Championship game. Illinois a Big Ten team held UCLA to 14 points the other day.
