I'm backing Clemson here their 2 losses down the stretch to South Carolina and NC St were without the glue of their offensive line in Phillip Price at LT. The 6'5 315lb tackle is healthy and ready to go and that should be the difference. We saw how dominating Clemson was against Virginia Tech this year and I think that talent shows up again tonight.
The key for Clemson is running the ball and this is not the same West Virginia defense of years past. They're 63rd in scoring defense in the Big East? They gave up far too many points to some bad offensive teams. On average they've faced a much less challenging schedule despite facing LSU in non conference ball, Clemson faced 2 SEC teams and their pass defense faced an average 58th passer rating team while WV faced an average 74th. Their run defense faced 47th average rushing offense and WV faced an average 69th. There is no comparison to offenses in the ACC vs. Big East. The health of Andre Ellington will be a key he's 100% and ran for 125 yards against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship. We all saw how Virginia Tech dominated the line of scrimmage vs. one of the best rushing teams in the nation last night in Michigan. If Clemson can run on Virginia Tech they can run on West Virginia.
West Virginia Rushing defense on paper gave up just 3.79 ypc overall, but 4.78 on the road they were highly inconsistent and gave up 38, 31, 49 points to 3 average Big East offenses in Louisville, Rutgers, and Syracuse and they haven't faced a QB and offense this good all year long maybe since LSU and they will have their hands full on 3rd downs which I'll get to in a minute. Clemson can also pass on West Virginia in my opinion the pass rush of West Virginia is not what it was in years past and again I love this offensive line and Tahj Boyd to hook up with all his weapons including Sammy Watkins and TE Dwayne Allen. Most of West Virginia's sacks came in one game 10 vs. Pitt and they had 17 in their other 11 games.
On the flip side Geno Smith has been excellent in the new offense only 7 interceptions 25 TD's and 65%. Probably the most accurate passer Clemson has faced, but they are one dimensional in the end and when you are one dimensional you have issues picking up 3rd downs. Clemson showed major holes in their run defense this year, but athletically up front they should be able to get Geno Smith. They have more talent up front and WV offensive line has under achieved big time and too often Geno Smith has been rushed allowing him not to pick up 3rd down conversions which to me is the biggest difference separating these two teams.
3rd down offense and defense. Clemson is 31st in the nation completing 44.61% of their 3rd downs and 48.48% in non conference. Now they go up against West Virginia who is holding opponents to 36.65% but a closer look tells me a completely different story. They allowed 45.88% on the road and They only faced two top 40 3rd down offensive teams in Syracuse 36th, and LSU 28th. Both converted on 3rd downs and destroyed West Virginia's offense converting 71% for Syracuse and 50% for LSU. Down the stretch they even gave up 52.63% conversions on third down to a similar type QB that they will face tonight in BJ Daniels and South Florida whom were ranked 87th in the nation in 3rd down offense. Take out Syracuse and LSU and West Virginia has faced an average 98th 3rd down offense. When they have played capable offenses they have failed time and time again. This is the same for their red zone defense which is worse than Clemson overall by 10% and they've allowed nearly 70% TD's on the road this year. Clemson's 3rd down and red zone defense are better in my opinion and West Virginia is just 38.41% converting 3rd downs. Look for Clemson to bring their excellent size and athleticism led by DE Andre Branch on 3rd downs which will turn the game.
Another hidden advantage is in special teams and turnovers. West Virginia is -2 and Clemson is +2. Not much of an advantage, but an advantage none the less. Kickoff and Punt Returns also an advantage West Virginia has allowed 24.52 ypr and 2 TD on kickoff's Sammy Watkins has the speed to bring it back at any point 26.27 ypr. Tavon Austin is good in his own right, but Clemson allows just 19.79 yards per return. In a game that should have a ton of points advantage Clemson. They are also allowing 1.5 yards less per punt return, have a higher FG%, and are averaging over 4 more yards per punt. West Virginia is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. ACC and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Clemson is pumped up and following a great ACC Championship with a healthy offensive line should be ready to play well here.
