We had some rough luck with teams we backed yesterday getting key injuries to key players (Pacers/Grainger) and Miss State and Moultrie. Miss State also blew a 17 point lead to lose in OT, but we look to bounce back with two games on Wednesday that are guaranteed to go 2-0 or 1 day is FREE!


Love the Bulls in this spot despite them dominating Nova on the road already. This team has never beaten Nova at home and finally have that chance. Nova meanwhile had to come back from 19 down against Providence at home in their last game. They are starting to improve, but South Florida is just a better team. South Florida is 11-2 at home for a reason it's not an easy place to travel to for Big East foes. Nova is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games and they really struggle offensively shooting just 40% on the road and that leads me to South Florida's defense.

South Florida has held 22 of their 25 opponents under 70 points and allow just 41.3% from the field at home. Nova is 1-7 straight up this year when they are held under 70 points. South Florida should be able to score enough points in this game too as Nova really does not bring the defensive intensity as it clearly showed in the game vs. Providence.


Northern Iowa was a 14.5 point favorite at home and lost to Evansville, and now they are under dogs on the road. There is not way that's worth a 15.5 point swing. Both teams are fighting for a top 6 seed in the MVC tournament because they will get a bye. I like Northern Iowa down the stretch here and in their home loss they allowed Evansville to shoot 48% from the field and 26 attempts from the FT line which led to 24 points. I expect Northern Iowa to not allow free points in this game it's not their character. On the other hand Northern Iowa can only play better.

They shot 40% from the field and an awful 13-23 from the FT line and turned the ball over 18 times. They only turn the ball over about 10 times per game to begin with. The game was decided by the FT line and Evansville ability to get there as well as their ability to force turnovers. Those are two things Northern Iowa can and will easily clean up. Evansville is not a very good team they allow 48.7% from the field in conference play and 47.7% when they are home so expect Northern Iowa to be able to score points in this one especially on revenge which will result in them buttoning up their defense. There is a reason they are 55-27 ATS in their last 82 as road dogs and 25-11 ATS in their last 36 overall as a dog. Evansville upset Creighton and then lost their last game vs. a team that didn't have their second leading scorer. This is a team that's about to fall fast.

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