When looking at this match up you have to look at what the strategy is for both teams. Both teams are in the top 10 in play % for what they do well.
Kansas State is 6th rushing play % and Texas Tech is 9th in passing play %.
And both those stats increase in their home/away splits with Texas Tech slinging the ball 63.4% of the time on the road and Kansas State rushing the ball 73% of the time at home.
Knowing these facts allow me to know what to concentrate on in this match up. I look at three keys.
Texas Tech's run defense, Kansas State's Pass Defense and Balance Def/Off.
1.) Texas Tech's Run Defense - Can it stop Kansas State?
⢠Tech is 32nd in run defense form a ypc perspective, better than Oklahoma and Iowa St.
⢠LB's are a real strength and they have speed and unlike some of the defenses Kansas State has faced they can tackle. Led by their Sr safeties DJ Johnson and Cody Davis who bring help.
2.) Kansas State's Pass Defense - Can it stop Texas Tech's Pass?
⢠No they are 103rd in completion % against allowing nearly 70% completions. They have faced 4 veteran QB's Juniors/Seniors and all 4 have completed a higher % of passes than their season averages and some significantly.
⢠Miami's Stephen Morris 75% (57% season)
⢠North Texas (Derek Thompson 89% on 28 att - 56.3% season),
⢠Oklahoma's Landry Jones 65.1% average on season 62%
⢠WV's Geno Smith 65.7% but had 2 INT's.
⢠Seth Doege 70.8% and is a Sr. ton of experience.
⢠The first three threw 0 INT's against Kansas Sate and Seth Doege should be able to replicate that.
3.) Which team has more balance on offense and defense?
⢠If we are looking at it for a yards perspective Tx Tech has more balance easily. (Ksate is 92nd passing yards, 64th defending the pass) Texas Tech's two weaknesses are 78th rushing yards, 21st stopping the run) A deeper look at my favorite stats further proves that.
⢠Texas Tech - rushing 78th, a closer look shows us that they average 4.8 ypc good for 35th and their 21st run defense is not really a weakness, but they are 32nd in ypc and they are also used to teams trying to run on them.
⢠Kansas State is not used to teams trying to pass on them - ranked 99th in opposing teams passing play %. Still they were 64th in yards allowed. They were 103rd in completion % against and Seth Doege has 28 TD/ 7 INT if he can avoid the turnover he should be able to win.
THE ONLY WAY TEXAS TECH DOES NOT COVER THIS SPREAD IS IF THEY LOSE THE TURNOVER BATTLE.
Tech is taking care of the ball better than they did when they blew an 8 point lead to Kansas State last year at the half. In that game they were -4 turnover margin and they still managed to only lose by 7 points after being +241 yards for the game. Tech is +2/game on the road this year and have played with more balance. All three of their top RB's have 60+ attempts and more than 5ypc!
In case you still are confident because you are one of the many that are now all over Kansas State.
⢠Alot of Kansas State's strengths or intangibles are also Texas Tech's
⢠Texas Tech is terrific at contorlling the clock
⢠3rd down offense, Texas Tech 54.26% to Kansas State's 53.95%
⢠3rd down defense Tech 38% 53rd (34% road) / Kansas St 82nd and allowing 44% at home
⢠Kansas State is top 5 in turnover margin, Tech is +2/game on the road
BOTTOM LINE:
I love fading teams after they are coming off a huge win and Kansas State's win at West Virginia was huge. I think the oddsmakers are moving this line and they know the public will bite. I'm not biting. I'm banking that Tech will get up on Kansas State like they did a year ago, but they'll avoid the turnovers since they can run the ball and have more balance. Forcing Colin Klein to pass won't be a good thing.
